The Majors

In the past month alone we’ve seen three announcements that are as fascinating individually as they are illustrative collectively. Primary Wave in talks to acquire Kobalt. BMG reportedly exploring a deal for Concord. The now-concluded acquisition of Downtown by Universal Music Group Each headline by itself is significant, but taken together they suggest something more structural is currently at play. A re-majorisation of the music business.

Last week I was at Music Ally Connect in London- and as you can well imagine AI took it’s usual place as the topic du jour. Despite being well trodden ground there was some fascinating elements- both trends from the day at large and specific comments that gave insight to how the Music industry is currently both thinking about and preparing for (/guarding against) AI. Mostly these broadly fell into 3 camps- intense negativity, bullish positivity and cautious ambivalence.

Every industry has its myths- narratives that get repeated so often they start to feel like facts. Music may be one of the most culturally powerful forces in society, but it’s also one of the most misunderstood commercial ecosystems. Misconceptions are often perpetuated by those without years of internal industry experience- not only colouring how the business is perceived (particularly operationally), but also by implication how we think about innovation and investment.

Every vertical in the entertainment industries has always rested on two foundational pillars: content and distribution. One produces the art- the stories, songs, and IP that audiences love, the other makes sure those works can actually reach them. The symbiosis and tension between the two is as old as the media business itself, but in practice it’s far from a zero-sum game. Content without distribution is invisible. Distribution without content is empty.

The conversation around “independence” in the modern music industry has come to the fore in recent weeks, and is getting harder to define. The major music companies have always built to consolidate power and position- not just through powerful content ownership, but via distribution and now through data.