Music Business

In the past month alone we’ve seen three announcements that are as fascinating individually as they are illustrative collectively. Primary Wave in talks to acquire Kobalt. BMG reportedly exploring a deal for Concord. The now-concluded acquisition of Downtown by Universal Music Group Each headline by itself is significant, but taken together they suggest something more structural is currently at play. A re-majorisation of the music business.

Last week I was at Music Ally Connect in London- and as you can well imagine AI took it’s usual place as the topic du jour. Despite being well trodden ground there was some fascinating elements- both trends from the day at large and specific comments that gave insight to how the Music industry is currently both thinking about and preparing for (/guarding against) AI. Mostly these broadly fell into 3 camps- intense negativity, bullish positivity and cautious ambivalence.

Top songs are what attract capital. Music, and entertainment at large, is a hits driven business. This may be true, as most of the value magnetises to the ‘head’ of catalogs, but it doesn’t mean that everything else has no value. In fact- the truth is far from it. Large catalogs can offered history, predictability, and a level of institutional comfort that made underwriting easier- let alone the base level of recognizability and ‘icon’ status that marketing departments dream

Every industry has its myths- narratives that get repeated so often they start to feel like facts. Music may be one of the most culturally powerful forces in society, but it’s also one of the most misunderstood commercial ecosystems. Misconceptions are often perpetuated by those without years of internal industry experience- not only colouring how the business is perceived (particularly operationally), but also by implication how we think about innovation and investment.

Music is one of the most culturally powerful forces on earth. It anchors memories, shapes identities, moves crowds, ignites movements, defines decades, and travels further and faster than almost any other creative expression. It also underpins nearly every other entertainment and social experience we care about. And yet… commercially and systemically, it is profoundly undervalued.

For years music publishers have learned to live within a strange paradigm. Chatter around the industry is endlessly about innovation, data, efficiency and the collaboration required to realise gains for all. Yet for all the discussion, the data sets relied upon for collecting and attributing royalties continue to operate with significant limitations- none of which need to be spelled out here. Publishers, despite best efforts, often only discover issues after value has already

There’s a recurring dichotomy in how music publishing ‘value’ is discussed. The media conversation clusters around the headline acquisition of iconic catalogs and blockbuster songwriters- the “big deals” naturally command attention. They are tangible, easy to explain, and fit the narrative that music IP behaves like a financial asset. However there is also a real engine of value outside those deals that make the music headlines. There is still material revenue to be found ac

Every vertical in the entertainment industries has always rested on two foundational pillars: content and distribution. One produces the art- the stories, songs, and IP that audiences love, the other makes sure those works can actually reach them. The symbiosis and tension between the two is as old as the media business itself, but in practice it’s far from a zero-sum game. Content without distribution is invisible. Distribution without content is empty.

The music industry has always existed as a vehicle between art and commerce. In the last decade, a third dimension has pervasively entered the mix, and has been delicately impacting the status quo- institutional finance. Catalogs that were once considered illiquid creative assets are now treated as financial instruments. Music rights are being packaged, leveraged, and traded with the same language and logic once reserved for bonds, real estate and pension funds.

From continuous large scale investments and strategic manoeuvres to tales of narrowing margins and constant restructuring, the music publishing industry seems caught in a tension between optimism and anxiety. On the one hand, Goldman Sachs’ Music in the Air 2025 and Bolero’s subsequent analysis paint a bullish medium and long-term picture. Meanwhile, publishing revenues alone- according to Goldman Sachs- are projected to rise more modestly.

The music publishing industry is no stranger to disruption. Every year seems to bring a new wave of technological, economic, or cultural change that evolves how music is consumed, and subsequently licensed and monetised. Keeping a keen eye on the data for areas of potential growth provides rights holders with a super power. Seeing what opportunities are developing, at what rate, and what the uplift is likely to look like as the revenue converts down the pipeline- particularly

The music industry has never been short on creativity- but in the smaller Publishing niche it’s often been sadly short on collaboration. Not between songwriters, producers, or artists- but between the organisations, systems, and standards that underpin how the business actually serves these creators. For an industry built on relationships, too much of our data and infrastructure operates like a walled garden.

Books like All You Need to Know About the Music Business (Don Passman) or Music: The Business (Anne Harrison) and other various law primers have certainly become the ‘go tos’ for a reason. Though undoubtedly useful for understanding contracts, rights, and royalties at a granular level, they are also relatively dense as they are so granular.

We’ve all had that feeling. You suddenly hear a new song on the radio. A friend mentions it. Then it pops up in a reel, a TV ad, a shop playlist... suddenly, it’s everywhere. But somewhere along the way, without even realising it- you start to like it. Maybe even love it. You Shazam it. Save it. Play it again later. It becomes your go-to. You don’t quite know how it happened… but it did.

Art has a fine line to navigate- a continuum where defining itself has far reaching implications- from the law to the economy. In almost every era of history, the same debate has resurfaced in music: art, or business? Music is expression, storytelling, and ‘soul’. It is connectivity and communication that crosses borders and languages- transcending individuals, able to curate emotion, to create community and even manifest radical action. The romantic answer is “art,” of co