It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

From continuous large scale investments and strategic manoeuvres to tales of narrowing margins and constant restructuring, the music publishing industry seems caught in a tension between optimism and anxiety.

Photo by Jon Tyson

On the one hand, Goldman Sachs’ Music in the Air 2025 and Bolero’s subsequent analysis  paint a bullish medium and long-term picture. Global revenues are forecast to nearly double from approximately $105bn in 2024 to around $200bn by 2035 (which seems optimistically high- even on current numbers!). Meanwhile, publishing revenues alone- according to Goldman Sachs- are projected to rise more modestly to roughly $14.9 billion by 2030 from ~$10bn in 2024, a somewhat meagre suggested increase.

There is mounting evidence that beneath this tidal wave of capital and growth, many in the industry, especially publishers, are feeling squeezed. Margins are thin. Investments, particularly in music tech startups, are facing warnings of slowed momentum. The refrain of a “penny business” has never felt more tangible.

So is this the best of times, or the worst? The opportunity is larger than ever, but the risks are deeper than many realise, and we’re on the precipice of several potential tectonic shifts that could produce a dramatic impact.

The Upside Is Raising Eyebrows

There has never been more money flowing into music. Streaming continues to grow globally, expanding access to billions of listeners and stoking a steady rise in publishing and recorded music revenues- of which investors are taking notice. Private equity is continuing to invest in infrastructure (BMI, Kobalt et al.) alongside the continued catalog acquisition market fuelled by multi-billion dollar Funds and sovereign wealth vehicles. Capital continues to flow into the industry, betting that music’s long-term cash flows will prove more resilient than other more ‘correlated’ asset classes.

For publishers, this influx of capital validates the fundamental strength of music rights (both in ownership and distribution). The money entering the market has provided exit opportunities for rights owners and continues to establish music as a credible, mainstream alternative investment. In the process, it has also raised awareness of publishing’s role in the broader ecosystem. The long view is one of optimism: songs and compositions are being recognised for the enduring value they continue to hold in a streaming-first world.

Hidden Headwinds

Beneath the buoyant headlines, however, lie some sobering realities. Publishing has always been a penny business, reliant on the aggregation of micro-payments through fragmented global networks. Even as topline revenues expand, the share captured by publishers remains structurally constrained, hovering around 10-15% of streaming income. When margins are thin to begin with, even small inefficiencies or delays in collections can have outsized impacts, with the case for wider investment hamstrung by the economic realities and disintermediated incentive structures.

The investment climate that has propelled music over the past five years is hence showing signs of tightening. Reports from industry bodies, including Music Technology UK, warn that funding momentum for music-tech start-ups is slowing, raising concerns that the infrastructure needed to support future growth won’t mature at the required pace. This comes just as new complexities are emerging, such as AI-generated content.

In short, the underlying fundamentals of publishing are strong, but the environment in which publishers operate is still phenomenally complex and unforgiving. The micro-transaction nature of publishing makes resilience harder to achieve, even when macro-level revenues are hitting record highs. Perhaps this is still a result of the ‘Winner Takes All’ economics of the entertainment industry at large?

What Needs to Be Done- Strategy for the Best of Times

To navigate this paradox- more money in music than ever, yet tighter margins and sharper undercurrents- publishers and investors alike will need to rethink strategy. Efficiency is critical- better data pipelines and stronger cross-border collaboration between societies and rights administrators. Technology must be embraced not just as an add-on, but as core infrastructure.

Emerging funds looking at Music as an asset class need to appreciate the opportunity cost of assuming music is a passive investment- it is not. Particularly in publishing, music rights require constant attention-to-detail to even reach expected yields- yet alone to introduce fresh ‘alpha’. This means transparency, it means data, and it means tooling that leverages both of these at scale to produce actionable insights and subsequent results.

At the same time, publishers need to lean into their role as advocates for fairer value distribution. As streaming platforms, social networks, and now AI companies continue to build business models on music, publishers must ensure that the song itself- the original building block of all music’s value- is not structurally undervalued.

New ‘direct’ licensing deals between major publishers and DSPs are a strong example of a long thought impossible shift. Could they represent a slow passing of the collective management system, and make digital collections for publishing more akin to the recordings side? No doubt the next tier of publishers below the majors are keeping a keen eye, and testing their leverage with platforms like Spotify. As the barrier to entry lowers, a new type of collective system may begin to emerge, with greater competition driven by having no ‘legacy system anchor’.

Ultimately, the industry’s challenge is not whether music will continue to generate growth- it clearly will (though not at perhaps the rate or return of other industries- Insurance, Fintech, Health) but whether the rights holders at the heart of the system can capture their fair share. That answer will depend on whether today’s “best of times” headlines translate into a sustainable ecosystem, or whether the cracks in the model deepen into tomorrow’s “worst of times.”

The Best and Worst, Possibly At Once

The best: unprecedented capital flows, multi-channel revenue growth, expanding global markets, and new technologies pushing open creative opportunities.

The worst: squeezed margins, lagging innovation in parts of the ecosystem, and the risk that many rights-holders remain behind the curve in terms of data, subsequent clarity and proactive copyright discipline.

Tomorrow’s winners will be those who acknowledge both sides- who do not pretend the margin pressures aren’t real, nor that growth is guaranteed everywhere. They are those who build not just for the good years, but for the lean ones.

In music publishing today, what you know about your rights, how clean your data is, and how flexible your strategy is matter at least as much as how big your catalogue is (... and how big the multiple you paid).