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A Mere Effect... the Entire Music Market Explained

  • Writer: Henry Marsden
    Henry Marsden
  • Jul 21, 2025
  • 5 min read

We’ve all had that feeling.


You suddenly hear a new song on the radio. A friend mentions it. Then it pops up in a reel, a TV ad, a shop playlist... suddenly, it’s everywhere. But somewhere along the way, without even realising it- you start to like it. Maybe even love it. You Shazam it. Save it. Play it again later. It becomes your go-to. You don’t quite know how it happened… but it did.



It’s simple psychology. And it’s at the heart of how the modern music economy functions.

The phenomenon is called the mere-exposure effect, first identified by psychologist Robert Zajonc in the 1960s. It describes how we develop a preference for things simply because we’ve been exposed to them repeatedly. The more familiar something becomes, the more we tend to like it- regardless of its inherent quality.


In music, this seemingly innocuous quirk of human behaviour explains a remarkable amount: from why certain songs go viral, to why the music industry has become so heavily skewed toward a handful of hits. In fact, understanding the mere-exposure effect might be the single most useful lens through which to view the economics of the entire music industry today.



The Hit-Driven Curve

According to Luminate’s Year-End Report, more than 45 million tracks on Spotify- roughly 24.8% of its total catalogue- received zero plays in 2023. Another 30% received ten or fewer plays. Meanwhile, the top 10,000 tracks accounted for over 99% of all streams.


It’s an astonishing power-law distribution- in 2022, the top 1% of artists captured 42% of on-platform revenue.


The sheer imbalance isn’t a result of marketing budgets or talent disparities, but a natural consequence driven by the psychological mechanics of attention, and the reinforcing structures of digital distribution.


In the pre-digital era, record labels worked hard to manufacture repetition. Radio was the primary exposure channel, and programming decisions were carefully managed (or manipulated- hello, payola) to give songs enough airplay to become familiar. The repetition was expensive, but it worked- a single hit could justify its cost many times over.


Today, platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube, and TikTok provide repetition at an industrial scale. Their recommendation engines don’t just respond to popularity but actively generate it. Songs that start to trend are surfaced more often, inserted into playlists, promoted on homepages, and algorithmically recommended. The cycle of exposure becomes a flywheel- familiarity breeding affinity.


Again to reiterate- sheer saturation of exposure to a certain song can deliver popularity, feeding both algorithmic and relational recommendation. Supply drives demand. Critically it’s the volume of exposure that then determines the size of the return. It’s why breaking into the “algorithmic class” of content is now one of the most valuable levers in music marketing.



Exposure on Steroids

Nowhere is this effect more visible than on TikTok. The platform has become a cultural launchpad, not because it drives sales directly, but because it produces short-form, high-frequency, mass exposure. Users encounter snippets of songs dozens or hundreds of times across different videos. That saturation, even at 15 seconds a pop, generates familiarity, and (via mere-exposure): liking.


According to MRC Data, 67% of TikTok users are more likely to search for a song on streaming platforms after hearing it on TikTok. And in 2022, over 175 songs that trended on TikTok subsequently charted on the Billboard Hot 100- more than triple the number in 2020.


The standout examples are obvious (... because we’ve been exposed to them so much!):



These aren’t anomalies- they’re evidence of how powerful repetition in the right context can be. And importantly, the viral surges are not genre-bound. Pop, rap, classic rock, experimental- any track that crosses the exposure threshold will break through to sustained success.



Repetition Creates Predictable Value

For rights-holders- especially publishers and catalog investors- understanding and leveraging this phenomenon is critical.


The mere-exposure effect also explains why older songs are outperforming expectations in the streaming era. Again according to Luminate, catalog music (songs older than 18 months) now makes up over 72% of total streams in the U.S.- a share that is still growing.

Why? Because listeners tend to return to what they already know. Familiarity feels good. Nostalgia gets triggered. The sunk cost of attention pays dividends over time, let alone new generations discovering a previous generation’s hits via platforms like TikTok and placements like Kate Bush's.


This is one of the reasons publishing catalogs with deep cultural saturation- songs that were hits in their time and have since become part of the social fabric- are valued at such high multiples. Repetition has long-tail value.


Increasingly, music funds and publishers are realising that exposure history is a strong predictor of future earnings, because the 2 are so powerfully correlated. Songs that continue to be placed in ads, TV, user-generated content, or playlists are the ones that will continually generate outsized returns.



Strategic Implications for Rights Owners

Understanding the mere-exposure effect should change how publishers and investors evaluate and promote works. Here are some tangible takeaways:


1. Exposure History in Catalog Valuation

Catalogue valuation models often emphasise historical earnings, sync placements, and cultural impact. But exposure metrics- playlist adds, algorithmic lifts, sync rotation frequency, social virality- should be treated as leading indicators of future value. They’re proxies for familiarity, and therefore for repeat engagement.


2. Target Placement, Not Just Discovery

Rather than focus only on “new listener” campaigns, publishers can actively seek repeat-exposure channels, including:


  • Sync licensing for TV, film, and video games.

  • Persistent playlist inclusion (especially on Spotify/Apple editorial lists).

  • Influencer partnerships that generate recurring content around a track.

  • Licensing to fitness, retail, or wellness apps (Peloton, Calm, etc.)


Each of these reinforces listener memory, and by extension, emotional attachment.


3. Reframe the Value of Viral

Not all virality is created equal. The key is not a single spike, but sustained repetition across contexts. Rights-holders should track whether a viral moment translates into broader platform exposure- playlist placement, UGC adoption, long-form sync. If it does, the value will compound significantly.


Don’t just chase new hits- reintroduce known songs to new generations. This can be achieved through sampling strategies, re-recordings, or sync licensing into shows that have broad Gen-Z or Gen-Alpha appeal. Re-familiarisation is a powerful lever.



Final Thought

We often talk about music as if its success is solely a matter of artistic quality, savvy marketing, or cultural timing. Everyone who has ever worked on a ‘hit’ believes they were the single critical ingredient to its outsized success.

But beneath it all is something even more fundamental: the human mind’s tendency to prefer what it recognises. The mere-exposure effect is not a quirk, but a cornerstone of music economics.


And in a market where hundreds of millions of tracks compete for attention, the songs that win aren’t always (sadly) the ‘best’- they’re usually just the most familiar.




PS. If you want to explore more I’d highly recommend the following books which explore the topic at length:



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